The Incalculable Odds of Pitch Wars

I’d like to say this blog post is in honor of Catching Fire’s release—given that Suzanne Collins, Francis Lawrence, Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, etc. are amazing—but anyone who read my 11.67% Chance post during the Baker’s Dozen contest knows I’m obsessed with odds. I’m a writer…but I’m also a scientist. I spend my days playing with the chemistry of flavors. I worked for three years processing umbilical cord blood for the stem cells and, before that, I took many genetics, biology, and chemistry courses in college. I like to know the odds. I like to know what I’m up against. I like to analyze everything. And now I’m analyzing Pitch Wars.

For those of you who aren’t familiar with the Pitch Wars contest, you can check out Brenda Drake’s blog here:

http://www.brenda-drake.com/2013/11/pitch-wars-mentor-wishlist-bloghop-submission-guidelines/

If you don’t want to click the link, contestants in Pitch Wars submit a query and the first five pages of their MS to four mentors.  The great thing about these mentors? Many of them are writers who only recently signed with agents. They understand EXACTLY what it’s like to be in the query trenches. Each mentor has a different wish list for the types of submissions they want. After the Pitch Wars submission deadline, the mentors pick ONE of the submissions. They then help that writer polish their query and their entire MS, after which agents get a chance to look at the submissions. (Mentors also pick two alternates and review their query and first five pages, though these writers don’t get to be part of the agent excitement.)

So, given this, what are my odds of getting a Pitch Wars mentor? THERE’S NO WAY TO KNOW.

Every mentor surely receives a different number of submissions—and who knows how many that is? Without knowing that, there’s no way to calculate the odds for each mentor, let alone for all four mentors. This is both good and bad. Good: I can’t fret over an 11.67% chance like I did for Baker’s Dozen. Bad: I’m pretty sure my odds are way worse than they were for Baker’s Dozen. There was a limit (300) to the Baker’s Dozen submissions. There’s no known limit in Pitch Wars, only the number of people who hear of the contest who are looking for an agent. I keep picturing the disaster that will be mentors’ inboxes come 23:59 December 2.

To further complicate the odds, each mentor has a wish list, but there’s no way to know which genre will really catch their interest. And here lies a major issue for me. I was so sure I wanted to enter my YA light science fiction novel WORLD’S EDGE for Pitch Wars because I’ve been querying my YA contemporary European romance FOR PARIS, FOR LOVE like crazy. But…what if there are a couple of agents whose wish lists make me think FOR PARIS, FOR LOVE is the way to go? Do I have a better chance of getting a mentor with WORLD’S EDGE or with FOR PARIS, FOR LOVE?  I have no idea. I HAVE NO IDEA. And I have a week to figure it out.

I’m also being realistic. Given that my odds here are probably cringe-worthy, I’m not getting my hopes up. I’m choosing to view this whole Pitch Wars thing as a learning experience. Perfect the query. Perfect the first pages. Even if I don’t get a mentor, I’ll have strengthened my submission for agents. That’s a good thing. Still, I want one of these mentors to pick me. I REALLY want one of these mentors to love one of my novels. Which one? Well, I’d better stop writing to all of you and get to figuring that out.

And for those of you also entering Pitch Wars (who love The Hunger Games)? May the odds be ever in your favor.